National Technical Nuclear Forensics

Per National Security Presidential Memorandum 35, the Department of War (DoW) leads the United States Government (USG) post-detonation National Technical Nuclear Forensics (NTNF) capability and directs the U.S. to maintain and advance NTNF capabilities leading to the attribution of the source of an actual or attempted nuclear attack in all environments. Per the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, greater investment in NTNF tools is required to ensure they remain responsive to the threat. Per DoDD S-2060.04, OUSW(A&S) is the DoW office responsible for DoW’s NTNF capabilities. Per the FY 2022 – FY 2026 Nuclear Forensics Analysis System Plan, accelerated timelines are required for the NTNF capability to collect, analyze, and evaluate both air and ground post-nuclear detonation samples. This program is the only DoW RDT&E program focused on Advanced Component Development & Prototypes for NTNF capabilities. Collecting analyzing and evaluating post-detonation prompt signals and nuclear debris is critical to ensure the USG can identify the source of nuclear material and holding those involved or supporting an attack accountable is critical to our national defense and security. Swift and accurate forensic and attribution capabilities are vital to supporting the President and Secretary of War in developing an appropriate, and timely, national response to a nuclear event and to prevent future attacks. An effective NTNF capability ensures potential adversaries, or those who support them, know that they will be held accountable if they use proxies or other non-traditional delivery (e.g., false-flag operations) of nuclear weapons against the U.S., U.S. interests, or allies. Both internal and independent studies indicate that continued improvement to the USG's NTNF capabilities is needed to sustain a credible deterrent against an attempted or actual nuclear attack. Additionally, this program sustains perishable U.S. technical expertise at the operational DoW laboratories required to respond to a post-detonation NTNF event. The DoW's laboratory capability in this area is limited by capacity and technical expertise.