# Battlespace Data Assimilation and Prediction

**R-2A activity** of project 2342 — METOC Data Assimilation and Mod  
**Program element:** 0603207N — Air/Ocean Tactical Applications  
**Component:** U.S. Navy · **Budget Activity:** 4  
**Vintage:** President's Budget PB2027  
**Canonical URL:** https://hitchintel.com/programs/0603207N/2342/a0  
**Parent:** https://hitchintel.com/programs/0603207N/2342

## Summary

This activity requests $16.3M in FY2027, 100% of project 2342, up 47% on FY2026. The R-2A exhibit describes it across FY2026–FY2027, including what the FY2027 money is planned to buy.

## What the FY2027 request buys

**FY2027 planned work.** -Continue to mature ensemble global environmental prediction models. This includes adapting the next-generation NEPTUNE (Navy Environmental Prediction System Using a Nonhydrostatic Engine) atmospheric model for ensemble use and integrating NEPTUNE as the atmospheric component of the Earth Prediction Capability (ESPC) coupled global forecast system. The goal is a robust long-range (up to 45 days) air/ocean forecast capability with high accuracy, resolution, and probabilistic projections for operational planning. -Continue maturation and transition of the Navy Ionosphere Model for Operations (NIMO). This includes adding an ensemble forecast capability to provide communications and surveillance planners with probabilistic forecasts of ionospheric effects. -Continue to mature regional (higher resolution) models. This includes improving the regional atmospheric model (COAMPS) to assess refractive conditions at land-sea boundaries and investigating the ability of COAMPS, variable-resolution NEPTUNE, or other global models to provide higher-resolution, tactically useful predictions. This includes better predicting the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones and inland storm surge, to increase warning time and improve impact predictions for operational planners. -Continue to mature and transition ocean acoustic prediction models, analysis tools, and critical environmental parameter databases to operations. This includes upgrades to model components to account for vertical ambient noise and improve depictions of model uncertainty, to provide more accurate undersea sensor performance predictions with associated measures of uncertainty, better supporting decision-making. -Continue physical and acoustic oceanographic enhancements to global ocean prediction capabilities, including a higher-order advective scheme within the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) operating within the ESPC system. -Continue improvements to ocean data assimilation systems for global ocean models (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation) and regional models (NCODA 4DVAR), to utilize more globally available data. -Continue development of a unified aerosol global forecasting capability (deterministic, ensemble, and retrospective) that will integrate into the NEPTUNE processing suite. -Continue improved coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling and validation strategies, including developing a common verification system between ocean and atmosphere modeling suites and focusing on targeted coupled modeling development and analysis areas (such as the Arctic).

**FY2026 to FY2027 change.** Funding increase from FY 2026 to FY 2027 is due to increased investments in development of global environmental prediction models, improvements to ocean data assimilation systems for global ocean models, and improved coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling and validation strategies.

## Before the request year

**FY2026 plans — current year.** -Continue to mature the ensemble global environmental prediction models. Specific efforts include adapting components of the operational NAVGEM model for use in the next generation NEPTUNE mode, and upgrading physics subroutines within the operational the Earth Systems Prediction Capability (ESPC) global forecast system. The objective is a robust long range (to 45 day) air/ocean forecast capability with high accuracy and resolution, and probability projections, to enable operational planning. -Continue maturation and transition of the Navy Ionosphere Model for Operations (NIMO). Specific efforts include addition of an ensemble forecast capability. Objective is to provide communications and surveillance planners with probabilistic forecasts of ionospheric effects on their systems. -Continue to mature regional (higher resolution) models. Specific efforts include improving the regional atmospheric model (COAMPS) capability to assess refractive conditions at land-sea boundaries, and to increase the ability of COAMPS to better predict the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones and the inland surge caused by those storms. The objective is increased warning time and more accurate depictions of expected impacts for operational planners. -Continue to mature and transition to operations ocean acoustic prediction models, analysis tools and critical environmental parameter databases. Specific efforts include upgrades in the various model components' ability to account for vertical ambient noise and provide improved depictions of model uncertainty. Objective is to provide more accurate undersea sensor performance predictions with associated measures of uncertainty, in order to better support decision making in an information-limited environment. -Continue enhancements to the Global Ocean Forecast System to include a higher order advective scheme and an expanded data assimilation capability via improvements to the NCODA data assimilation system. -Continue improvements to ocean data assimilation systems for global models (NCODA 3DVAR) and regional models. (NCODA 4DVAR), with the objective of using more of the globally available data. -Continue development of a unified aerosol global forecasting capability (deterministic, ensemble and retrospective) that will integrate into the NEPTUNE processing suite., -Continue improved coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling and validation strategies, including development of a common verification system between ocean and atmosphere modeling suites and targeted coupled modeling development and analysis focus areas (such as the Arctic.)

## Funding

| Fiscal Year | Estimate Type | Amount ($M) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | Actual | 19.6 |
| FY2026 | Enacted | 11.1 |
| FY2027 | Request | 16.3 |

> Prior, current and budget year only — an R-2A activity carries no five-year plan. It sums exactly into its project in the request year and not necessarily in any other.

## Source & machine access

- **Source:** FY2027 Department of the Navy RDT&E Budget Justification, Exhibit R-2A, PE 0603207N project 2342 (PB PB2027). Narrative is the government's own text.
- **No marks, no contractors at this grain** — congressional marks land on the program element and R-3 performers on the project.
- **MCP:** `mcp.hitchintel.com` — `budget_get_activity`.

*HitchAI is an independent intelligence service, not affiliated with the U.S. Department of Defense. Budget figures are requests/estimates, not obligations.*