Cost Estimating Modeling (CEM)
Cost Estimating Modeling (CEM) enhances Air Force and Space Force-wide cost estimating capabilities by developing current cost estimating datasets and methods and tools, data architectures/structures, and other cost estimating method/tool gap-filling initiatives. In collaboration with the OSW Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) Cost Assessment Data Enterprise (CADE) project, the Department of Defense's (DoD) unified information system and initiative to collect, organize, store, and use contractor and acquisition data more efficiently, CEM products improve the quality, timeliness, and effectiveness of acquisition program cost estimates in support of Department of Air Force (DAF) and DoD acquisition decisions, programming and execution decisions, and Congressional mandates. The partnership between CEM and CADE is a leading example of a data initiative designed as a response to a Congressionally expressed desire for better outcomes in acquisition. CEM research places DAF datasets, analysis, estimating tools, and institutional knowledge availability at analyst's fingertips rather than relying on an inefficient, ad hoc, and decentralized approach. CEM ensures the DAF continuously improves cost estimating capabilities for broad cross-cutting areas, as well as specific weapon system types like aircraft, space and launch systems, missiles, and others. This project performs knowledge-based studies to include organizing complete datasets, analyzing historical data, and studying changing technologies/programmatic information to develop new estimating methods (e.g., statistical tools, cost estimating relationships) across hundreds of product work breakdown structure elements and functional cost elements. CEM delivers valuable datasets, methods, and analytical tools in support of higher quality/credible estimates required by statute and regulation allowing for more realistic cost-conscious decisions on over 250 billion dollars of critical war-fighter capability. Enables DAF cost estimating community's ability to leverage modern tools and methods such as data science toolsets, including machine learning (ML)/artificial intelligence (AI). Changing technologies, acquisition laws, policy directives, and initiatives drive the continuous requirement for revised cost estimating processes, methods, and tools.
FY2027 planned work - Will continue efforts in support of the Cost Analysis Data Operating Model (CADOM) by prioritizing capability gaps for future development and evaluating current CEM tools that would benefit by migration to an enterprise solution. - Will continue to collect historical program data to fill gaps against defined data collection requirements from previous year efforts and integrate historical data collected into CADE system for central access to all DoD. - Will direct research to develop integrated datasets with embedded CERs and benchmarks, but with structures that let cost analysts easily and quickly re-normalize data for specialized relationships and benchmarks. - Will initiate studies that…
FY2026 to FY2027 change Funding decreased because of adjustments for inflation and other factors. Scope and thrust remain the same.
FY2026 plans — current year - Continue efforts in support of the Cost Analysis Data Operating Model by prioritizing capability gaps for future development and evaluating current CEM tools that would benefit by migration to an enterprise solution. -Design, develop, and implement a series of robust, automated data pipelines integrated with dynamic analysis/predictive models, custom applications, and conduct cost and technical studies for the cost estimating community, utilizing state-of-the-art data science tools and ensuring that DAF cost estimating capabilities are leveraging modern toolsets and methods to the maximum extent possible -Collect historical program data to fill gaps against defined data collection…